This weekend, a year long odyssey ends in either triumph or heartbreak.

After taking the longest possible route – twelve matches, seven opponents, six countries, and God knows how much time flying around to all of them—the Central Coast Mariners are officially in their first continental tournament final.

They’ve earned a $1.15 million prize just for making it this far, and if they win, they’ll double that payday and become the last ever AFC Cup champions. But in order to cement this accomplishment, the Mariners must travel over 11,000 kilometers to Muscat, Oman, and defeat Al Ahed, the reigning Lebanese Premier League champions.

So for one last time, let’s go over how CCM made it here, who they’re up against, and what it’s going to take to win this battle on the stage of history.

Walking off the Brewers: how the Mariners made the final

After a tight and tense first leg in Kyrgyzstan, where Abdysh-Ata Kant dominated possession and then came through in stoppage time to equalize and stop the Mariners from stealing a victory, CCM flew back home with all sorts of questions hanging over their heads.

Would they just let the Brewers dominate possession the way they did in the first leg? How would they stop Kayrat Zhyrgalbek uulu from adding yet more goal involvements to the 11 he’d racked up?

After thriving against Australia’s reigning champions, how big of a shot of confidence would Abdysh-Ata ride into the second leg? Add in a flood-addled flight back home, which postponed the Mariners’ league match against Adelaide – plus star winger Ángel Torres’s interim suspension after being arrested on sexual assault charges. The yellow and navy looked very vulnerable indeed going into their return Gosford leg.

Fortunately, the Mariners created a much more back-and-forth contest at home, improving their share of possession by double digits and going shot for shot with the Brewers. But it was after the 72nd minute, at the end of a wave of both-sides substitutions that included Abdysh-Ata striker Ernist Batyrkanov leaving with a hamstring injury, where Miguel Di Pizio seized control of the narrative.

Once the 18-year-old scholarship player came off the bench, he went from a nice Italian boy to a bad, bad man, finding a well-placed pass from Mikael Doka, bouncing it off the keeper, then rebounding that miss to take the lead.

Doka would get his own spot of glory about ten minutes later, when Josh Nisbet mailed a pass through an extremely tight window. The Brazilian right-back rushed to meet it and smashed the ball in, securing a double-deflected dagger for his second goal involvement of this aggregate.

Just for good measure, right as the 90th minute ended, Di Pizio blocked an errant pass in the box with his chest and promptly sent it home with his right foot. The goal marked his third goal of the Cup, and the first brace of the young Sydneysider’s professional career.

With that, the Mariners officially wiped out their shaky first leg, positioning themselves to potentially become the first Australian club since Western Sydney Wanderers to win a continental competition.

The Covenant of Clutch: meet Al Ahed

Al Ahed FC’s history goes back sixty years, but in the last twenty, they’ve transformed from just another club in Beirut to a certified powerhouse. They’ve won nine league titles, going unbeaten for three of those campaigns, plus so many tournaments that they completed Lebanon’s only domestic quadruple in 2011. But the Covenant’s finest hour came in the 2019 AFC Cup, where they defeated North Korea’s April 25 Sports Club and became the first Lebanese team to ever lift continental silverware.

But where that squad stormed undefeated through every round of the campaign, 2023-24’s Yellow Castle limped out of the gate. In an abridged Group A, cut down to three teams after Palestinian side Jabal Al-Mukaber withdrew two matches in, Al Ahed were a force of crushing neutrality, trading wins with both remaining opponents and posting a goal differential of zero.

Still, Ahed’s two stoppage scores in the last game of the group were enough to snag a last-minute wild card in the West Asian zonal semis, where they faced Group B winners Al-Kahrabaa. With the second leg winding down in Iraq, it looked like the Electricity would prevail in front of their home fans, but in the 85th minute, Ahed found an equalizer, and after a scoreless extra time, the Yellow Castle delivered on both ends to win the penalty shootout 4-2.

This set up a rematch with the Group A champions, Oman’s Al-Nahda, for the zonal crown. Unlike the ASEAN zone, where Macarthur and Mariners played one game for all the marbles, the West Asian crown came down to an aggregate—and towards the end of the second leg, it looked like the Tenacious would live up to their nickname and bully their way past Ahed on sheer possession and shot volume.

But after the two sides exchanged three goals in the last ten minutes of regulation, Ahed stood tall, and Nahda left with nothing. Now, the Yellow Castle must make the Sultan Qaboos Stadium their fortress as they attempt to claim their second AFC Cup.

On the attack, Al Ahed have their fair share of clutch performers. They reached the group stage because of midfielder Walid Shour, who carried this team to a wild card by scoring a penalty and serving up an assist right after. Scottish striker Lee Erwin roared to life in the knockouts, scoring the campaign-saving equalizer against Al-Kahrabaa and netting a late brace on Al-Nahda to punch Ahed’s ticket to this final.

Across the two phases combined, Syrian winger Mohammad Al Hallak has been their most consistent threat, with two goals and three assists to his name. But outside penalty shootouts, this is a shockingly low-scoring squad.

They’ve notched just nine goals over eight tournament matches played. Barring an absolute one-in-a-billion chain of events that would enshrine this final in global infamy, Marco Túlio’s eight group stage goals as a Mariner will be enough to get the Golden Boot mailed to his new pad in Kyoto.

But that low scoring probably doesn’t bother the Covenant or their fans much, because this Yellow Castle is built on defense and grinding out results. In 2019, Ahed won the AFC Cup with just 11 total goals and three straight one-nil wins in the knockouts.

For the past three seasons straight, they’ve conceded the fewest goals in the Lebanese Premier League. And while their total goal differential in this year’s tournament is a mere +1, they’ve compensated by absolutely refusing to let anyone leave them in the dust. True, they haven’t won any matches by multiple goals, but they haven’t lost any by multiple either, and keeper Mostafa Matar hasn’t allowed more than two past him in a single match or penalty shootout.

What makes this run even more impressive is that, for the entire tournament, Ahed have never played a true home game. Because their home stadium in Beirut only seats 2,000 people, not to mention its dangerous proximity to ongoing wars in the region, the Covenant have had to play their entire slate of matches outside Lebanon, either in opponents’ stadiums or at neutral sites. Making it this far in spite of that is proof of Al Ahed’s incredible resolve, and it’ll no doubt help them.

Chasing History: what it’ll take for the Mariners to win it all

There are some major clouds hanging over the Mariners going into this match. First, there’s a pattern of increased vulnerability on the road that goes all the way back to the start of Group G – including their only loss of the tournament and back-to-back draws in the road legs of their interzone knockout rounds.

The weight of history also tilts significantly against them—West Asian clubs have historically dominated this competition, taking all but two editions and the last six in a row.

One thing that might not bother CCM, however, is losing Ángel Torres. Not only did they make the final without him, but of the Mariners’ 14 goals in the knockout round, he was involved in just two, both of which happened all the way back in February. They know by now that hot hands can emerge from anywhere in the lineup, be they regular starters like Josh Nisbet and Mikael Doka or hotshots off the bench like Ryan Edmondson and Ronald Barcellos, and can afford to find the day’s hero as the match develops.

As for actually dealing with Al Ahed, it’s going to be a game of inches and opportunities. The West Asian final showed us it’s not as simple as just dominating possession and carpet-bombing the goal until Mostafa Matar lets something through, because the Yellow Castle can compensate for limited offensive opportunities by maximizing the results on the few they get.

The Mariners will need their front four to step up and protect their keeper at all costs, while the attack creates exploitable matchups and deceptive approaches to counter Matar’s agility in front of the net. Controlling late-game possession should also be a priority for the Mariners’ entire XI in order to smother any heroics and/or daggers Ahed try to pull out on the final stretch.

This is a very winnable game for the Mariners, but it’ll also be their toughest test of the tournament, and they’ll need to outwork and outplay Al Ahed at every turn. Put load management and the A-League finals out of mind—this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, a chance to close a chapter of continental soccer and give a major trophy a permanent home in Gosford. If CCM lose here, they’re never getting another chance at this cup, but if they win, it’ll take them to heights no Australian team has seen since Western Sydney Wanderers won the Champions League a decade ago.

One way or another, somebody’s going home with a piece of immortality, so stay up as late as it takes to see it with your own eyes.