Rugby in Australia is at an almighty crossroad.

The shambolic World Cup mission dubbed ‘Operation Smash and Grab’ yielded Eddie Jones a new job and the Wallabies an abysmal ninth place in the official world rankings; a position that belies their proud history as dual world cup winners.

CEO Phil Waugh and Chairman Daniel Herbert are trying to rejuvenate rugby union in Australia but will a decorated coach provide the answers or will Joe’s Schmidt’s appointment be a case of ‘same, same but different’?

There appear to be two major issues that are vexing Herbert and Waugh:

1. State-driven agendas, and
2. An over reliance on the private school system

Resuscitating the sport will not be an easy fix. One of the problems is slowly being addressed, but the other requires total reform.

In addressing the first issue it would be prudent to take a walk down memory lane, or perhaps the more aptly titled Boulevard of Broken Dreams, to bring some pragmatism to the narrative.

An optimist could easily hypothesise that success is a mere gybe away following the appointment of the super coach.

But a cynic, even the most ardent rugby union disciple, will struggle to digest the coming of the latest messiah as the panacea for rugby if recent trends are anything to go by.

This saviour parable has been wheeled out before – most recently with the signing of Eddie Jones. However that bedtime story has been shown to be all hat and no cattle; think Titanic rather than The Gruffalo.

We should consider Schmidt’s installation through a retrospective lens; see Exhibit A. Robbie Deans, and his fellow countryman, the rugged and successful Dave Rennie as Exhibit B for strongly-correlated precedents.

Both andragogues had strong pedigrees. However, neither Deans nor Rennie could transplant their successful coaching models to the Australian system.

Underpinning their success was the New Zealand Rugby Union’s contracting system. The NZRU operates a fluid central contracting model.

It’s an oligarchical system that effectively means it has a significant say in how things are run in ‘Super Town’, and what players are contracted etc, which ultimately flows up to the All Blacks.

Therein lies the rub for Rugby Australia. The Australian system is heavily influenced by the states, which based on recent evidence is detrimental to the game at the professional level.

The powers that be in Australian rugby are attempting to reform their contracting model to align more with the New Zealand system – which is also utilised by South Africa and Ireland.

Coincidentally, these nations have experienced sustained success in the last decade – but the wheels of change move slowly in this part of the world.

How does all of the above relate to the contemporary coach, Joe Schmidt? Much like Deans and Rennie, Schmidt arrives with a formidable resume.

However, if you consider the model that Deans and Rennie operated under, not much has changed in the rugby landscape for the highly respected ‘Ordinary Joe’.

RA have taken over the injury riddled and unsuccessful ‘Tahs, and they own the licence for the Rebels, although there’s intense doubt as to whether that’s worth the paper it’s written on considering recent events, but moving on.

Tick, tick. That leaves three other state union boxes unchecked. Thus, Schmidt will oversee a Wallabies program that by and large will function under the same conditions as his fellow countrymen did; an abridged federated model that has resulted in an acute decline in the performance of its flagship team – the Wallabies.

It beggars’ belief that they sat atop of the rugby world – for the second time in eight years – in 1999, only to gradually drop to their current standing of ninth.

They relinquished the Bledisloe Cup in 2003, and no Australian player – save for Steve Devine, has seen his reflection in that silverware since. Crucially, their main ascent came at a time when professionalism was relatively new.

They had the AFL and NRL professional models to draw inspiration from which gave them an advantage.

But like the All Blacks before them, as the stars of the code quietly rode off into the sunset, Rugby Australia landed in a massive ditch when their raft of champions retired.

Tellingly, the All Blacks took over a decade after the 1998 season from hell where they won two from seven to navigate their way out of the fog.

This brings us to the modern day.

Schmidt doesn’t have world class players to call on. An elite few are near the top of stat sheets for key metrics across all teams, while other precocious talent may get there. He’s made a key appointment in Mike Cron, his peerless credentials speak for themselves.

But the reality for Australian Rugby fans is that Joe Schmidt still must negotiate the antiquated and recently unsuccessful federated model that underpins rugby at the top level in Australia.

In breaking down Schmidt’s predicament further there are three teams who are below fifth place on the Super Rugby ladder; the Rebels, the ‘Tahs and the Force.

The crux of this means Schmidt is going to be highly reliant on the rejuvenated Reds and the Brumbies who are both faring well in Super Rugby 2024 – assuming he intends to pick on form.

A smaller, cohesive and well-performing player pool – much like the champion 1999 squad which drew on just three Super teams – blended with some pariahs from other squads, might just be the elixir that allows Schmidt to produce remarkable results in his short-term contract.

But the elephants in the room remain; the lack of country-wide buy-in of the states to a centralised model, and the over-reliance on the private schooling system.

GPS graduates have historically provided many of the players in professional rugby, as well as coaches and administrators.

This tacit pathway from the GPS schooling network to the top level has served a purpose for some time and students from these schools have provided many outstanding players.

Shore School alumni Waugh recently spoke about the need for a “strategic transformation” and that a “refocus” is due.

In unpacking Waugh’s comments it’s difficult not to find them a touch ironic given that he went to a GPS school, played for the Wallabies, worked in corporate Australia and is now preaching about a “transformation”.

His pathway from GPS pupil to Wallaby is a well trodden route – a saloon passage some call it. His ascension to CEO from a private schooling system is not without precedent.

Let’s delve deeper into this; of the last five full-time CEOs, three of them; which includes Waugh, Bill Pulver and John O’Neill, went to private schools in Sydney, were based on the north shore of Sydney at some point and all worked in the corporate sector.

From the outside looking in, this pattern of an oversubscribed reliance on the GPS schooling system and a favouritism towards a particular socially-dominant persona no longer offers elite utilitarian value.

A shift away from this supply loop that has been perpetuated by an exclusive ‘jobs for the boys’ mentality that reproduces elitist behaviours would not be a turnkey solution.

Detaching itself from its imperialistic Anglo roots effectively requires a total cultural reform that would yield casualties as incumbent stakeholders jostle for appointments; The Master’s Tools Will Never Dismantle the Master’s House by Audre Lorde unpacks the pitfalls of this scenario well.

Most likely, any movement away from this antiquated quasi feeder system will not bear any fruit until after Schmidt finishes his current two-year deal.

But if Waugh and Herbert are going to ‘move the dial’ in rugby in Australia – long-term, a positive transformation would arguably need to incorporate a move away from its current sub-optimal practices.

An authentic refocus would need to include fresh perspectives, outside of the spectre of the private schooling system and its associated cultural norms, in order for a reset to be considered as truly genuine by an underwhelmed rugby public.

Directly attributing all of the current deficits permeating through Australian rugby to its unsatisfactory state-centric system, and an elitist private schooling network would be a touch naive.

There are likely to be other levers that need to be pulled to bring about positive change within rugby’s four walls.

Anecdotally however, these two dots appear to connect to a bigger square that is fast becoming a destructive monolith.

The fact that Phil Waugh is espousing the narrative that a change of landscape is needed in rugby in this country is a humorous paradox.

If he’s serious about applying a proverbial defibrillator to the game, then it should start with tacking into a heavy wind, away from the status quo profile that he represents.

Thus, a new persona may flourish and potentially jump-start the ailing code.

Assuming this utopian style of altruistic leadership and a fit-for-purpose player management model becomes the norm Schmidt, and those that come after him may be able to reverse the losing trend of his compatriots which will please even the most cynical among us.