Like many rugby tragics, I have been waiting in anticipation for the selection of the Wallabies squad. So far Joe Schmidt has been clear that he wants to select a team that comes primarily from local Super Rugby Pacific players and that he puts a high value on consistency of performance. With those two things in mind, I leant a bit on my background in medical research to arrive at an approach for choosing a team that measures consistency of performance of players across Super Rugby. First of all, we need to get some reliable (or near it) data, cross reference it and give this data a weighting based on value.

Data and scoring

The data that I have used includes:

The players in the Teams of the Week as chosen each round across 15 rounds by journalists at superrugby.com (which only picks from Australian players) and the Teams of the Week across 15 rounds chosen by planetrugby.com (which chooses from all players). I have given one point to a player if they are chosen in either the Super Rugby or Planet Rugby Team of the Week in a given week.The Posty awards from the commentators on Stan Sport. They choose three players each week and allocate one, two or three points. To prevent the data from being unfairly weighted, I have only given one point regardless of if the player actually got one, two or three points on ‘Between Two Posts’.The relevant stats from Super Rugby which are made up of tries scored, metres made, line breaks, tackles made, line outs, carries and offloads. I have given one point if a player is in the top ten of players in super rugby for any of these stats. These points are only given after the 15 rounds, so that they are not given points every week for these stats.

Method

The method is simple. Add the points together to get a score. However, to make sure it is showing “consistency of performance”, you don’t want to have too many points in one week. For example, if Tom Lynagh put in a great performance one week and got three points this would be unfair to a player who put in great performances every week but only got picked in one TOTW or Posty.

Therefore, the maximum number of points a player can get in a week is two. Points are added to their combined total for their stats (e.g., Tom Lynagh might get one point added for being in the top ten players in super rugby for offloads).

I should also mention that a player might earn points across two positions. These points have been added and recorded against their preferred position.

Example

Let’s take Tom Wright at fullback for example. While playing at fullback, Tom Wright was chosen in five Teams of the Week by Super Rugby (five points). He was chosen in three Teams of the Week by Planet Rugby (three points). He also got Posties in the same weeks he was chosen in the Super Rugby and Planet Rugby teams, however these were not added in as they could skew the result in a given week. He was also given one point for being in the top ten in super rugby for tries, carries, metres and offloads, so that’s four more points. The grand total he gets over 15 rounds is 12 points (which is pretty impressive).

Results

First of all, thanks for sticking with the article thus far. Now after grinding the pocket calculator, a list of players that Joe Schmidt should pick based on consistency of performance can be made. The top two players by points have been listed, unless there is a tie for second in which case both players in second place have been included. Also, players who are not eligible for Wallabies selection due to nationality (e.g., Toomaga-Allen) have not been included. The points have been placed in brackets beside each player and a player with six or more points bolded.

1. Gibbon (5), Slipper (3), Hodgman (3)
2. Faessler (7), Heaven (3)
3. Nonggorr (5), Tupou (4), Talakai (4)
4. Ryan Smith (8), Uru (5)
5. Frost (5), Canham (4)
6. Valetini (11), Liam Wright (6)
7. McReight (12), Tizzano (5)
8. Wilson (8), Cale (7)
9. McDermott (5), Jake Gordon (4)
10. Lolesio (8), Donaldson (5)
11. Toole (7), Pietsch (5)
12. Paisami (7), Stewart (3)
13. Daugunu (6), Ikitau (6), Flook (5)
14. Ryan (7), Anderson (2), Kuenzle (2)
15. Wright (12), Kellaway (9)

Discussion

In April 2024, Tim Horan picked a list of players that he believes should make up the starting Wallabies 15:
1. Slipper
2. Faessler
3. Tupou
4. Swinton
5. Frost
6. Leota
7. McReight
8. Valetini
9. McDermott
10. Lolesio
11. Kellaway
12. Paisami
13. Ikitau
14. Nawaqanitawase
15. Wright

As you will see, the list compares to the list developed based on the performance data across Super Rugby, except for Swinton, Leota and Nawaqanitawase as they have not been picked in Teams of the Week, identified by Stan Sport commentators in the Posties segment or featured in the top ten Super Rugby stats. Therefore, they probably don’t warrant selection based on Super Rugby form.

However, there may be another reason to select them, such as their physical size which may help to compete with the physicality at Test level or their past performance as a Wallaby (e.g., Nawaqanitawase). On this last point, it is also worth noting that players like Izack Rodda and Allan Alaalatoa have not been able to acquire points as they have only recently returned to play Super Rugby. Nevertheless, you can only judge what you can see, and you would have to take a bit of a leap of faith that they would return to form should they be selected.

It is also worth discussing the positions that are most problematic for selection are No.1, No.3, No.5 and No.9. These are positions where no player got above five points and the players are on similar scores. Therefore, it is more likely that these positions could be taken by someone who has just come back from injury (e.g., Alaalatoa at No.3 or Rodda at No.5) or an overseas player (for instance, Skelton at No.5).

Final Comment

There is a depth of selection available for the Wallabies squad. Many of the players in the list are performing well according to the SR stats and pundits (even when compared to New Zealand competition).

There is enough talent, depth and diversity of skills to get them working together in key combinations and key set piece plays. After some quality coaching, who knows, us Wallabies tragics could finally be smiling again.