They say the night is always darkest before dawn.

Well, 2023 was bloody dark for a Wallabies fan. I don’t want everyone to relieve the trauma of last year so we can just leave it as it should be – a bad dream.

However, 2024 is a much better story. Let me start by saying I am a big fan of Super Rugby.

There is just something about the comp that draws me in. My favourite matches are Aussie v Kiwi matches.

I look at these as a barometer for the Wallabies’ chances of regaining the Bledisloe and how they will compete on the world stage as a whole.

In 2024 the Aussie teams have achieved their best win percentage versus the Kiwis in a decade, regardless of how the Brumbies fair in their remaining one (hopefully two) matches.

We currently stand at a win percentage of 37.8 per cent (11 wins and 18 losses). That is the best since 2014 when we won 48 per cent.

That number dropped to 29 per cent in 2015 and ended at a low point of ZERO in 2017.

This is easily the most competitive we have been in Super Rugby Pacific too and a big jump from last year’s 20.7 per cent win-rate.

The average points differential per match has decreased too, from -12.2 in 2023, to -9.4 in 2024.

Who are the major drivers of this improvement? The Brumbies and the Reds.

The Brumbies have won four and lost two and the Reds won three and lost three. The Brumbies have been very consistent versus the Kiwis across all the years of SRP.

Overall, they now have won 10 and lost 9 (52.6 per cent win rate).

The Reds under Brad Thorn only won one match out of 12 versus the Kiwis. Less Kiss has made a big difference to finish this year with a 50 per cent win rate and an overall points differential of +8.

This year’s SRP performance has set a nice platform for Joe Schmidt’s team to have a decent crack at the Bledisloe.

The home fixture is completely winnable, but in reality, bringing back Bill would require an excellent performance in the away fixture with a bit of luck (like an early Red card).

Overall, I would expect as pass-mark for Joe’s team this year to be eight wins and five losses.

I will tell you how I came up with this figure. The home tests versus Wales and one versus Georgia should be all wins – anything less would be seen as a big disappointment.

In the Rugby Championship, we have two home games versus South Africa, two away versus Argentina, and one home and one away versus New Zealand.

It would be reasonable out of those six fixtures to win half.

Then we have the Northern Hemisphere tour against England, Scotland, Wales, and Ireland. We should be winning at least two of those matches too.

A 61.5 per cent win rate this year would make it the best Wallabies yearly performance since Michael Cheika’s 10 wins and two losses in 2015.

That should propel us back into the top five teams in the world in the rankings and will be a great launch pad for the Lions tour.

Rugby is a top-down sport. This year, at most a Super Rugby player will have 17 matches for his province (if they make the final) and a possible 13 for the Wallabies.

The public interest in a Wallabies match is magnified many-fold than that of SRP; to compare Super Rugby to NRL or AFL is just apples and oranges.

Success for the Wallabies is the driver for SRP interest – and I have faith in Joe and his Wallabies squad to bring us back to the top.