When it comes to winning Origin games, there are all sorts of theories about what works and what doesn’t. 

That it’s a different beast to the NRL and that State of Origin contests are won by “Origin players” rising to the occasion in “Origin moments”. 

And it is true that these already elite players often perform near superhuman feats of athleticism and endurance to put themselves in the right spot and the right time to get their team to victory. 

But when you boil down the characteristics of what works and what doesn’t for an Origin team in facts and figures, a few trends emerge and some myths are busted. 

Looking at Origin of this decade only after the switch to the six-again rule made for a totally different ball game, Queensland have won three of the four series and eight of the 13 games. 

As much as Blues bloods like to claim the Queensland spirit is overblown, they have won the only six matches this decade that have been decided by 10 points or less. 

When the match is in the balance, the Maroons invariably pull through. Their average winning margin in the 2020s is 11.25, which has blown out significantly after belting the Blues by 26 and 28 respectively in their two most recent wins.

And when NSW are good, they’re dominant – their closest win since James Tedesco’s last-minute try clinched the 2019 shield was 14 points with an average winning margin of 28 from their five triumphs.

When it comes to the key statistics that NRL fans are bombarded with during Origin matches, some matter, others not so much. 

Origin stats that matter (maybe)

Possession

Who has the ball is one of the most recited indicators for who is on top and who is not. 

For the most part in Origin, it tends to even out to a few percentage points either side of 50-50, even in blowouts.

In six of the 13 matches this decade, the winning team has had less than 50% of the Steeden, once it was dead even and the victors held the edge the other six times.

Winning teamLosing teamResult
(reverse chronological order)47
48
49
47
52
60
49
46
51
51
57
54
5053
52
51
53
48
40
51
54
49
49
43
46
50Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Completion rate

It has become a trend of the hipster NRL statistician (if there can be such a thing) to say completion rate doesn’t matter.

Not quite, it’s not the be-all and end-all that some commentators make it out to be but it does have an influence on the result.

In Origin with theoretically the 34 best state-eligible (not necessarily Australian representative) players in the NRL, the completion rate is rarely low – have four of the 26 line-ups this decade have dipped below 75%.

The team that completed at the higher rate has won eight of the 13 Origins although the biggest anomaly is last month’s 2024 series opener at Accor Stadium when the Blues completed at 81%, a full 10% better than the Maroons, but were thumped 38-10 mainly due to Joseph Suaalii’s early send-off.

Winning teamLosing teamResult71
77
84
78
82
88
86
88
77
80
84
89
7881
81
73
78
73
75
80
83
83
78
84
74
75 Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Run metres

This is an old reliable stat that surely bears fruit in Origin right? Wrong. 

The team that has made the most run metres in the past 13 Origins holds a 7-6 record. 

Like possession, it tends to even out unless one team wins big.

Winning teamLosing teamResult1993
1750
1627
1452
1591
1818
1863
1464
1907
1841
1716
1813
18521884
1647
1713
1734
1623
1035
2003
1676
1526
1261
1393
1173
1914Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Post-contact metres

Now this is a doozy. You would think that the team which more often than their opponent takes a hit and manages to keep ploughing downfield would be the one who ends up on top.

Wrong again. It appears it’s more important to get a quick play-the-ball rather than stand in a tackle and drag defenders along with you before going to ground.

The team with the most post-contact metres in seven of the past eight Origins has been drowning their sorrows afterwards.

Winning teamLosing teamResult592
515
474
387
494
612
610
484
553
524
623
706
689653
535
519
505
580
324
625
575
484
400
502
526
750Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Line breaks

As expected, this one holds true that if you break the defensive line more than the other team, you are going to win.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Well not quite. The interesting part about this statistic is that the line break battle is rarely close. 

The winning team had at least three more line breaks than their opponents in nine of the 13 clashes. 

And the four times when the ledger was even or a couple either side, Queensland won them all, including the 2020 series opener when the Blues led that stat 4-3.

Winning teamLosing teamResult7
6
7
3
6
7
5
5
7
10
5
7
31
3
2
3
2
2
5
3
1
1
2
3
4Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Set distance

This one is telling. If you make more yardage on average each set, your field position dominance will translate to victory.

This was the case in nine of the 13 matches so whether teams rumble through the middle or put the ball through the hands to get downfield, it is uber critical in the Origin arena.

Winning teamLosing teamResult47.46
43.76
41.72
38.23
38.81
42.3
43.33
34.9
43.4
46
39
40.3
45.241
44.54
38.07
37.71
39.59
27.99
44.52
39.9
37.2
31.5
32.4
34.5
39.9Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Kick return metres

Getting off to a good set often depends on whether a team’s back three get on an early roll. 

But kick return metres is a stat which doesn’t seem to correlate with winning as much as you might think.

In just seven of this decade’s Origins has the team with the most kick return metres been the one belting out their victory song in the sheds. 

Winning teamLosing teamResult209
188
155
136
174
226
154
149
163
200
200
283
168178
137
265
239
227
117
212
202
133
101
138
46
196Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Play-the-ball speed

This should be another metric that you would hope would be a reliable indicator of who will win and who won’t.

Nope. On seven occasions the team with the quicker play-the-ball has emerged triumphant but the battle for the ruck is not the Eden-Monaro bellwether you would think it could be.

When the Blues romped to a 50-6 cakewalk three years ago, the Maroons had a significantly quicker play-the-ball speed. Go figure. 

Winning teamLosing teamResult3.62
3.99
3.91
3.71
3.92
3.86
3.22
3.68
3.98
3.69
3.09
3.23
3.283.44
4.05
3.98
3.82
3.57
3.78
3.4
3.72
3.34
3.33
3.4
3.39
3.15Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Tackle percentage

There are very few bad defenders in Origin and even though the match is played at a much higher intensity than club footy, there is rarely a major discrepancy between the Blues and Maroons in this metric.

In seven of the 13 most recent Origins, the team with the lower effective tackle rate has won the match but even in a blowout, the percentages can be pretty similar.

NSW surprisingly had a better tackle efficiency in game two last year despite being on the receiving end of a 32-6 drubbing.

Winning teamLosing teamResult86.74
85.54
85.61
88.61
83.29
88
87.13
86.4
87.5
85
89.8
90.7
87.486.96
89.14
87.36
89.04
82.7
83.18
88.52
87
85.2
81.7
88.2
90.2
89.8Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

Errors

And to finish, how many times have you heard a losing player or coach after a game bemoan the belief that “errors killed us”. 

That is not necessarily so. Usually the error count is pretty even but the team that has had the better record nine times has been victorious. 

There have been just three Origins this decade when a team has racked up more than three errors than their opponents and in the most recent one, last month’s Sydney stoush, the Maroons lost that stat 16-11 despite the lopsided scoreline in their favour.

Winning teamLosing teamResult16
9
12
8
9
5
8
9
9
11
10
7
1411
11
12
11
9
9
10
11
12
14
11
11
13 Q 38-10 (2024)
N 24-10
Q 32-6
Q 26-18 (2023)
Q 22-12
N 44-12
Q 16-10 (2022)
Q 20-18
N 26-0
N 50-6 (2021)
Q 20-14
N 34-10
Q 18-14 (2020)

For any fan, player or coach hoping there would be a silver bullet theory that proves a certain stat means certain victory, that is not the case. 

The intangible qualities that make up a successful sporting team are perhaps never more important than in the uniquely bizarre but brilliant concoction which is the State of Origin concept. 

Both teams look evenly matched on paper heading into next Wednesday’s MCG showdown where Michael Maguire has 80 minutes to prove he can come up with a game plan to deny the Maroons a third straight State of Origin shield.  

Recent history shows that the Blues can demolish their opponents if they get an early roll on but if the match gets tight down the stretch, the Maroons tend to come through on the only stat that really counts, points on the scoreboard at full-time.