The Swans have long been a team that commands respect.

I’m not disputing they are a well-run machine, and today they are often seen as perennial contenders.

Yet, as we pass the halfway mark of another season, the narrative that the Swans are the team to beat is, in my opinion, another misguided one.

The Swans will not win the flag this year, and here’s why.

John Longmire has a Grand Final (GF) record that is flakey. While his tenure has seen moments of brilliance, his performance in the only game that matters has been appalling.

The only Grand Final victory in 2012 under his belt came courtesy of the game plan laid out by Paul Roos.

As soon as he changed it the following year, Longmire’s strategies and motivational speeches failed to deliver when it mattered most.

Before the GF win, Paul Roos’ shadow cast long over the club.

The Swans have made three other GF appearances under Longmire, under his regime and strategy and in two of those, the team might as well have turned up to play a SANFL match for all the impact they made.

They simply did not turn up. Two Grand Finals were over by the 20-minute mark of the first quarter. That is hard for even North Melbourne to do in a rebuild, with half their players in nappies. North usually make it to half-time.

This season, the Swans should finish at the top of the ladder, and they may even make it to the GF.

But mark my words, they will be crushed when they get there. The pressure of the big stage has proven too much for Longmire’s squads in the past, and there’s little to suggest this year will be any different.

Only one team has applied GF pressure to the Swans this year for four quarters – Richmond and the Swans failed.

Exactly what Geelong did to them in their last Grand Final appearance.

If you look at a lot of the other games the Swans have had in many ways a perfect run, Carlton without Walsh, Fremantle when the game should have been called off – beyond cruelty.

Then there was Melbourne when Max Gawn had the Flu and shouldn’t have played, and Kossy out, while Collingwood was missing more than you can count.

The Bulldogs were on a tear to win until Richards got injured. Yes, the Swans did the job, but fortune has played a key part – not the brilliance we all claim to see.

Moreover, let’s take a closer look at the coaches who have come through Longmire’s system. While some are great individuals, their records generally are woeful.

Stuart Dew, for instance, lasted how many years at Gold Coast but was ultimately shown the door. Ross Lyon, despite his tactical genius, seems destined never to win a flag.

Matthew Nicks at Adelaide is on his last legs, struggling to turn the team’s fortunes around. How many GF’s have they won, now look at the Clarkson legacy.

It is much more likely to be a Clarkson legacy coach again. Somehow, they have been trained for GF’s.

Contrast this with the likes of Collingwood and Carlton.

Collingwood, if they can get enough of their key players back from injury, are the real favourites. Their depth, resilience, and tactical acumen make them the real deal every week.

I can’t believe the Pies are flying under the radar. Yes, the first few weeks were bad. But that was it.

They won the flag last year. Carlton, got a taste last year and seems to be timing their run. Both teams have a doggedness and mental toughness this year to go all the way.

Hey, you never know with the Doggies if they can make the eight.

By the time finals come around, opposition teams will have had ample opportunity to analyse and counter the Swans’ game plan.

Craig McRae and Michael Voss seem to have plenty of tactical acumen and will exploit any weaknesses.

They will love being the underdogs and gee will their players turn up ready to smash the Swans.

On top of all of this is the harsh reality that the team that finishes at the top of the ladder rarely wins the flag.

Historically, teams that dominate the regular season often face immense pressure to perform in the finals and fail.

The finals are a different beast altogether, requiring not just skill but also mental fortitude and strategic brilliance for the GF.

Longmire’s Swans have shown they can dominate the regular season, but when it comes to the high-pressure environment of the GF, they falter.

As Longmire said before the 2014 GF – “it is just another game” – every other coach he has faced takes a different approach to Grand Finals and in 2024 I expect will be no different.

So, while the Swans are yet again rising high during the regular season, don’t be fooled into thinking they are the team to beat.

The real battle will be fought out by the likes of Collingwood and Carlton, and they are timing their run. They will enjoy the pressure and limelight on the Swans, it favours them, coming in as the underdog – perfect.

The Swans, will once again find themselves falling short on the biggest stage and it will be crushing.