Derby Day at Flemington kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and is one of the biggest events on the racing calendar with Group racing that is sure to be hotly contested.

Let’s break down the three big races.

Victoria Derby

The Victoria Derby is always a bit of an unknown, with three-year-olds stepping up to the tough slog of 2500m for the first time.

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Barriers play a key role in a Derby when there’s a big field, given there is a very short run to the first bend, and runners drawing wide risking being trapped four wide if they push forward, or settling too far back if ridden more quietly.

El Castello is the favourite, having won four races in a row including the Group 1 Spring Champion last weekend, which is always a strong form reference. His form is excellent, but he has been afforded every chance, which is something he won’t see from the widest barrier on Saturday. Happy to risk him as favourite.

Is the Vase at Moonee Valley the right form reference this year? If so, King of Thunder looks the pick of those runners. He was asked to make a long sustained run, while the winner Red Aces had the cosier time after a perfect ride. King of Thunder kept attacking the line, and had the fastest sectionals of the race, with another contender in Politely Dun left in his wake.

The Norman Robinson on Caulfield Cup day is the other main lead-up to a Victoria Derby, won by Kingofwallstreet. It was a very slowly run race that day, and Keeneland was a beaten short-priced favourite after not being able to sit-and-sprint, but his win in the Super Impose previously at Flemington suggested he could have the strength to excel over a long trip.

Rarely does the Geelong Classic stand up as a key lead-up to a Derby, but this year might be different. Saint Emilion couldn’t have been more impressive in his win when slicing through the field, and Ciaron Maher simply has to be respected in these big races, often producing a class horse from seemingly nowhere.

There looks a good amount of speed in the race, especially if some of those drawn wider want to push forward early. An unpredictable result wouldn’t surprise this year.

Selections: 1.King of Thunder 2.Saint Emilion 3.Keeneland 4.El Castello

Coolmore Stud Stakes

You can certainly argue that the Coolmore Stud Stakes is the race of the day, with a handful of potentially star sprinters tackling each other down the famous Flemington straight.

Three of these three-year-olds were due to contest the Everest – Growing Empire and Lady of Camelot ran third and fourth respectively, while Traffic Warden was scratched at the barriers when he was many people’s top pick to actually win the race.

Growing Empire also did everything but win the Manikato Stakes prior to his Everest placing, and has proven himself an exciting sprinter in the making. Mark Zahra jumps back on board, having won three races on him already, including down the straight. He ticks a lot of boxes and will be hard to beat from a beautiful middle draw.

Lady of Camelot was the outsider of the Everest field but defied the odds to run a game fourth, beaten a length and a half. Like Growing Empire, she has also run a placing at Group 1 WFA this prep, first-up in the Moir Stakes. The Golden Slipper winner has to be respected.

Traffic Warden didn’t get the chance to prove his wares in the Everest due to his mishap before the start, but his first-up win in the Run to the Rose was dynamic, and he was just denied by Broadsiding in the Golden Rose. Having only had two runs this prep, he does present as the fresh colt on the scene and was an impressive winner at Flemington earlier this year.

Switzerland has people wary, given the Chris Waller polish and the fact James McDonald has owned this day so many times. His win in the Roman Consul after he disappointed in the Run to the Rose showed he was back on track, and should be a force to be reckoned with.

Bellatrix Star has peeled off three wins in a row at black-type level, the first two against her own age and sex, and the latter against open-age sprinters. She’s won down the straight, and also at Moonee Valley and Caulfield, showing how adaptable and versatile she is. Don’t let her under your guard.

First Settler is the best genuine roughie in the field, only beaten just over a length by Growing Empire two starts back, and then franking that form in the Danehill last time out. His straight-track form is excellent, and being so lightly raced suggests he is still on an upward spiral.

Selections: 1.Traffic Warden 2.Growing Empire 3.Switzerland 4.Lady of Camelot

Empire Rose Stakes

This feels like one of the best Empire Rose fields we’ve seen assembled for quite some time, a fantastic betting race full of depth and chances. Will it go to one of the more experienced mares that we know quite a bit about, or is it time for an up-and-comer to announce themselves?

Atishu is the favourite, a horse that tends to peak at this time of year. Can’t quite escape the feeling that she’s just not going as well as she can, but perhaps she has just been finding tracks not quite to her liking or being against her pattern.

Amelia’s Jewel hasn’t quite lived up to the hype in the last 12 months but has been knocking on the door all the same. She ran a couple of seconds to start her campaign when she perhaps had things against her and was a highly respectable fifth in the King Charles last start. This race is a step down from that when chasing Ceowulf and Pride of Jenni.

Orchestral and Alsephina come through the Toorak, won so memorably by Antino. They were both beaten a long way, but have the quality to figure here. Alsephina is very consistent, always giving supporters a shout, while Orchestral has been a bit disappointing as a four-year-old.

Plenty of Ammo is the fresh horse, compiling a remarkable winning record in her short career, five wins from an unusual seven career starts despite being six years old. Her win last week at Moonee Valley was excellent, beating the internationally competitive Royal Champion and Nugget, who has always run well in some of Australia’s best races. She draws perfectly to settle handy and stalk the speed.

That speed will be provided by Grinzinger Belle, who seems perennially underrated. She’s won two races this campaign already, and we must remember that this is a day that can benefit those who are on the rail and up on speed. She’ll give a kick and take some running down at odds.

Kimochi is another mare that sometimes escapes notice. She’s had a busy preparation, going from Sydney to Melbourne and back a couple of times, and keeps running well in good races. She’s placed three times at Group 1 level around the 1500m-1600m distance range – and would be a deserving winner.

Selections: 1.Plenty of Ammo 2.Grinzinger Belle 3.Kimochi 4.Amelia’s Jewel

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