WORTH THE WAGER: $100K Parlay Bet for NFL Week 18
As 28 different NFL teams face off on January 5, 2025 to cap off the 2024 NFL regular season, check out why this one bet is worth the wager.
Disclaimer: Never bet above what you can afford to lose. For some people that’s $100K, for others that’s $1. Let’s explore why we have a good chance to double whatever that number is today instead of losing it.
NFL Week 18 often serves as the pivotal finale of the regular season, where playoff dreams are made or shattered, and player performances take center stage. This year, all eyes are on Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, and Geno Smith as they have millions of dollars of incentives and team’s playoff hopes on the line. With Evans leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sutton anchoring the Denver Broncos’ offense, and Smith guiding the Seattle Seahawks, these players are poised for breakout performances against opponents with contrasting stakes.
Mike Evans, known for his consistency as one of the NFL’s elite wide receivers, enters Week 18 looking to solidify another 1,000-yard season. Facing the New Orleans Saints, Evans will be critical in breaking through a defense that has struggled at times in coverage. Similarly, Courtland Sutton, a key piece in the Denver Broncos’ passing attack, has a crucial matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs team that already has its playoff seeding locked in, meaning mostly backups will be taking the field.
With Denver’s season hanging in the balance, Sutton’s ability to exceed expectations could dictate their offensive success. Meanwhile, Geno Smith leads a Seattle Seahawks squad looking to spoil the Los Angeles Rams vibes entering the Postseason as they’ll also be deploying backup players on the field in LA.
Smith, who knows Seattle could be looking for a new signal-caller in the draft this year, also has current contract incentives on the line in what could be a financially defining performance of his career. These individual matchups not only highlight the stakes of Week 18 but also underscore the thrilling narratives that make the NFL’s regular season finale a can’t-miss event.
Scroll down to see why this parlay bet with 3 legs for +102 ODDS is worth the wager on January 5, 2025 in Week 18:
1. MIKE EVANS OVER 64.5 REC YARDS (-475)
2. GENO SMITH OVER 199.5 PASS YARDS (-400)
3. COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 64.5 REC YARDS (-300)
FACTS & TRENDS
Geno Smith has hit o199.5 PASS YDS in 13/16 games (82%) this seasonSmith can earn $6,000,000 by recording 185+ PASS YDS ($2M), 69.7% CMP ($2M), and winning Week 18 ($2M)Los Angeles Rams are sitting many starters vs. Geno with their division title and home playoff game secured
Courtland Sutton has hit o64.5 REC YDS in last 6/9 games (67%) since getting 0 targets vs. Saints in Week 7Sutton can earn $500,000 by recording 82 REC YDS The Chiefs’ best 2 CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson will not be playing vs. Denver in Week 18
WHY IT HITS
$100K PARLAY FOR NFL SUNDAY IN WEEK 18 (+102):
LEG #1: MIKE EVANS OVER 64.5 REC YARDS (-475)LEG #2: GENO SMITH OVER 199.5 PASS YARDS (-400)LEG #3: COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 64.5 REC YARDS (-300)
1st Reason: Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield are clearly aiming to get Mike Evans 1,000 yards this season which is 85 yards away. 65 is a solid worst case scenario.
2nd Reason: Geno Smith has to ball out for current contract incentives and future contract negotiations against a backup Rams defense.
3rd Reason: Kansas City is resting their key defensive starters against a Denver team needing to win with Sutton highly incentivized to get 82+ receiving yards on Sunday.
Every bet has a chance of not hitting but based on the value (+102 odds), this one is worth the wager. However, if it doesn’t hit, it’ll most likely be because of these reasons:
POINT 1: Knowing these 3 players’ incentives could influence offensive game plans, the defensive game plans might be to focus on stopping these players from excelling against them.
POINT 2: With more important things at stake for the team, it won’t be a priority to feed Mike Evans and Courtland Sutton if they’re getting double covered or not open on most plays.
POINT 3: Geno Smith only needs 185 passing yards for incentive-purposes and might not quite reach the full 200 as he plays conservatively to ensure he has a 70% completion percentage
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