The ACT Brumbies are once again flying the flag for the Australian sides in the Super Rugby Pacific semifinals.

The third-placed Brumbies reaped the rewards for their 12-2 season, playing the sixth-placed Highlanders in the quarter final, a side they disposed of in strong form.

Although making the semis seem like a triumph of its own, for this Brumbies squad it comes with a sour taste, having tasted defeat at the exact same stage in the last two seasons.

“Two years ago, we lost to the Blues in the semifinal, and this is not good enough,” coach Stephen Larkham said post-match against the Highlanders.

“Where we’re at the moment, just winning a quarterfinal, getting to a semi, is not what this team’s about.”

However, the Brumbies must face the facts; their defensive record this season along with their weaker scrum has them as underdogs heading to Auckland to take on the Blues this weekend.

Nevertheless, these Brumbies players are more experienced, hardened and wiser than years gone by, but with this experience has come a swathe of changes to their playstyle which is their biggest asset and liability.

Former coach Dan McKellar and assistant Laurie Fisher tried to win the comp with a tight-five dominant mentality, using the maul, scrum, and ruck work to bully teams into submission.

They fell agonisingly short against the Blues in 2022 with a 20-19 defeat at Eden Park.

Current head coach Stephen Larkham tried it that way last year, with the added X-factor of Corey Toole and an in-form Tom Wright, but he too fell short with a 19-6 loss to the Chiefs in Waikato.

But there is a sense of destiny about this year: with the Brumbies having their only two losses coming against their previous semifinal combatants, the Blues (46-7) and the Chiefs (46-12).

A tune of ‘third time lucky’ has a ring to it and has the men from Canberra revisit their own graveyard of 2022 this weekend, with those experiences boding well for an upset.

“Last year and the year before was probably the first time the boys have been over to New Zealand playing in the finals and experiencing what it’s like to play at Eden Park as well,” captain Allan Alaalatoa said on Monday.

“So we’re going to lean on those experiences from those boys who were there… having the experience of playing semi-finals over there is going to be massive for us.”

In 2024 Fisher has moved on and a change in defence coach and philosophy has come with it.

It’s been a year of changes aplenty at the Brumbies as their attack continues to evolve and a contestable kicking game has been introduced.

Changes which have left them defensively weaker on average across the season, but they are now playing a more aggressive, faster, and lethal style of rugby.

The tactical evolution has come with the evolution of key players; the game drivers, the big hitters and the fleet-footed magicians are all two years more experienced and have seen many more pressure moments since their semifinals attempts.

The added experience bodes well for a side which will be playing the margins on Friday night.

As far as strategy in 2024, the Brums have foregone some of their usual reliability to harness a new and explosive game-style.

A rush defence has been effective because it is has been capable of transitioning to attack at any time, and although there have been holes found in their defence, the speed at which they’ve counterattacked has caught teams off-guard.

Despite the new bells and whistles this team still bears the hallmarks of Brumbies of old; well structured, patient and can wear opposition teams down with strong direct play.

The variability in their arsenal has been unlocked by in-form five-eighth Noah Lolesio: the variation in his kicking game and the Brumbies’ contestable kicking strategy has blunted opposition defences.

Lolesio’s midfield bombs, cross-field kicks, and chip kicks as well as his and Wright’s ability to hit 50-22s has meant even the most regimented of defences cannot exert full pressure on them.

The threat of this variation is complete with the speed and skill of the wingers, Toole and Andy Muirhead are legitimate threats out wide and are too skilful and fast to leave undefended.

The width this forces defences to play with mean gaps open-up elsewhere when they try to adjust.

The kicking game will be crucial if they are to break Vern Cotter’s Blues side; a well-drilled unit, complete with the best defence in the competition and the best gainline carry numbers.

The changes in game-style and coaching has meant the Brumbies’ dominance up-front has taken a backwards step.

A virtually unchanged roster has seen the scrum descend to the least successful in the competition as well as some of the worst defensive stats in the comp.

However, the changes away from structured dominance has come with a growth of explosive players and ability.

Charlie Cale, Jahrome Brown, and Tamati Tua have all gone to another level in 2024.

The gainline carries these three have provided has not only assisted John Eales Medallist Rob Valetini but has enabled him to improve his all-round game.

Cale’s explosive running, Brown’s quick feet into to contact and Tua’s line running are all little touches of class which have seen them all shine alongside Valetini.

The trio’s importance will be in the confrontational parts of the game as well as when things get loose.

The Wallaby-laden Brumby pack must set the baseline for the team if they are to succeed, but they have their work cut out for them against a Blues side enjoying an average of 92 gainline carries per game.

In defence, they will need to get squarer in their rush defence but in attack is where the kicking game comes in.

The Brumbies must move the ball away from the Blues’ forwards and make them retreat.

Whether it is a chip, bomb, or cross-field kick; forcing the Blues to reset their defence will be imperative to breaking their line and to unlock the Brumbies’ newfound lethal attack.

This low possession, high kicking game is what they have been playing all year, which will give them confidence heading into the do-or-die clash.

Against other opposition the men from the capital have been able to go through, around and/or over teams, but not paying the Blues’ defence the respect it deserves is a sure way to see this semifinal go the same way as the others.

Because make no mistake, this Blues side is better than the one they faced in 2022.

Another reason to make kicks contestable is because the Blues boast one of the most lethal back three combos in the comp.

Kicking long and giving Mark Telea and Caleb Clarke opportunities to counterattack isn’t an option, especially for a defence which has been as porous as the Brums’.

Playing with width will be the key to break the Eden Park hoodoo, players like Cale, Nick Frost and Billy Pollard all have the speed of backs and will be material in the success of their plan.

Having these players in the wider channels either to carry or generate quick ball will be crucial to break the rhythm of the Blues’ defence.

Attacking in the 15m channels whilst defending heavily in-between them seems like a concession but that will be the reality in Auckland.

All year the Blues have gone route one, setting the highest number of rucks with the quickest time which has seen their opposition crumble to the relentless onslaught.

The Brumbies must be opportunists on Friday, weathering the storm, whilst seizing their moments.

If Wright can show more of his newfound poise, rather than the risky plays he tried against the Highlanders, and the Brumbies scrum can hold-strong, then they have a chance.

Larkham has identified after so many near misses something needed to change, he along with his new coaching staff have evolved the gameplan and adjusted it.

Larkham has talked about “building” the entire season but it’s do-or-die now, knockout rugby, no second chances.

The odds, history, and fans will be against them on Friday night, but this Brumbies side has the unpredictability, power, and experience to overcome, and to go further than this cohort has gone before.