It’s time for one of the most celebrated milestones in recent AFL history, a commemoration of a beloved, cherished and occasionally controversial figure in modern footy who has brought his fans untold joy and will no doubt be celebrated across Melbourne for his special day.

No doubt Brayden Maynard will never forget his 200th game against North Melbourne on Sunday. Oh, and apparently some bloke with two first names also has a milestone game of his own at the MCG the day before?

In all seriousness, #Dusty300 is the sort of milestone that makes tipping a winner difficult. On the one hand, Hawthorn are in red-hot form, making a charge towards the eight, and under normal circumstances would be easy to back against a side with just two wins to their name this year. But on the other hand… if Richmond and the Tiger Army can’t rise for Dustin Martin’s 300th game, then clearly I don’t know them as well as I thought I did.

As it happened, that game is the only one to divide opinion among our expert tippers, with the four of us all tipping identically for the rest of Round 14. That makes Saturday afternoon at the MCG doubly important… who will come out on the right side of Dusty’s day?

Tim Miller

Last week: 4

Brisbane, Fremantle, Richmond, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS

Three games this week were as easy to tip as any in this most even of seasons: an in-form Brisbane should be pummelling St Kilda, especially at the Gabba, despite their relative struggles this year at their one-time fortress; while backing Adelaide to rebound from losing to the Tigers by beating Sydney is a fool’s errand, and Collingwood would need to be playing their full VFL team for me to give North Melbourne much of a chance against them.

I’m slightly less confident in backing in GWS at home against Port Adelaide: the Giants’ form has been a real worry of late, and while Josh Kelly’s return helps, this is exactly the sort of minor scalp the Power love to take to keep pressing for our respect without producing the performance that absolutely wins the footy world over. I’ve gone the home side.

And here’s a fun fact about the Giants-Power game: this will be Port’s first visit to Engie Stadium since 2013, quite literally three ground name changes ago. There’s surely not a longer time between matches at a team’s home ground in the AFL, aside of course from Collingwood never needing to travel to Geelong.

I badly want to pick the Bulldogs against Fremantle at home, but like against Brisbane last week I’m surprised they’re favourites: this looks for all the world like a knackered side clinging on for their bye, and while Freo’s week off came at a bad time after their flogging of Melbourne, 2024’s best clearance outfit should be powerful enough to take down the Bulldogs’ midfield weapons, especially if Marcus Bontempelli’s illness hampers his influence.

In the hardest match of the weekend to tip, I’ve sided with Richmond honouring Dusty’s 300th with a win.

This strikes me as a Tigers team that will rise for the milestone game, and if as expected 70,000-plus descend on the MCG to thank their triple-Norm Smith Medal-winning hero, that might prove anathema to a Hawks outfit that has relished being the plucky up-and-coming underdogs in the last few months, but have picked a rough week to have expectations suddenly thrust on them.

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 4

Brisbane, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS

Alright, so we’ve come crashing back down to earth, but it was another fun round of footy overall without much to complain about… except everything there was to complain about.

For the next fortnight, we’re back down to six games, which means a lot of tips wrong won’t be as costly – definitely the right attitude to have in these matters.

I’m not buying experts now saying that the Lions are back in flag contention because they won a game against the Bulldogs that analytically, it seemed like they were going to win anyway. Really, they should sweep that Saints to the side, but this style of inefficient offensive entries, mixed in with out of the box performances by forwards, that’s not sustainable.

Let’s see what they’re like under real defensive pressure and a hard tag. They have to beat the Saints at home comfortably – time to find out if they have what it takes.

Do we believe more in the Bulldogs or the Dockers? We all know what happened last time Fremantle played, but backing that up will be important. The Dogs, though, have some nice ins and at home, have to make a statement. I’ll lean slightly towards the away team, but expect much better from Bevo’s boys.

Dusty’s 300th is the headline act of Saturday – what a star, what joy he has brought us. The Hawks are in form and should win, but this is about more than the result – it’s a celebration of one of the greatest players ever.

Can Matty Nicks pull off a miracle against Sydney? Adelaide have been yuck all season and they continue to be. There’s no reason to tip any upset here.

Sunday will start with Collingwood beating North, but it finishes with the Giants desperately needing a win to get back on course, while the Power have stumbled their way into a high spot on the ladder without doing much.

It’s crunch time for both teams: neither were high on my ladder to start the season, but in a tight year, there’s an opportunity for both to prove themselves. Giants at home.

Cameron Rose

Last week: 5

Brisbane, Fremantle, Richmond, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS

Fremantle get to hit the ground running after their bye, in an eight-point game against the Bulldogs, given both teams will likely be scrapping for spots in the bottom half of the eight come season’s end.

The Dockers with the healthier list, and a week off, have no excuses.

Hawthorn have only won one game against Richmond in the last eight years, and now have to contend with Dustin Martin’s 300th and a Tiger outfit coming off a confidence-boosting win. With the Hawks being in outstanding form, all of a sudden this contest holds more intrigue than we would have thought at the start of the year.

GWS and Port finishing off the round is the battle of the pretenders – perhaps we’ll see one of them stand up as a contender. Giants for mine.

Liam Salter

Last week: 3

Brisbane, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS

Sigh. 

Much like the last few weeks, even the most theoretically simple of tips are causing me headaches – there’s enough doubt in all but two games to give me pause, and just about every strategy has backfired on me this season.

Let’s kick off with the ‘easiest’ clash to predict. The Crows aren’t going to get a fairytale upset win against the Swans – no amount of personnel changes, home ground advantage or coaching genius will change this outcome. It just ain’t happening, and Sydney shall remain the team to beat. 

Ross Lyon’s men face a tricky road trip to the Gabba to face the Lions. Simplistically, the visitors have won two on the trot, but realistically they remain flat and uninspiring, with this as good a chance as any for Brisbane to flex their muscles in front of their home fans. Ross Lyon’s weak style of footy won’t stand up to Brisbane’s offensive power… if they find their best. 

Saturday’s early clash is incredibly conflicting – my trust issues in terms of tipping the Bulldogs remain second only to my anxiety around Freo, especially when their campaign is (just quietly) building into something special.

It’ll be fascinating to see what the Dockers do around Marcus Bontempelli – he’s a man who can win a clash off his left boot – but Freo’s squad just works, and they’ll take comfort in knowing they beat the hosts (albeit in Perth, not Docklands) just 46 days ago. 

The feel-good tipster’s story in Saturday’s twilight clash would be to back the Tigers off the back of a breakthrough win, and while they’re celebrating Dusty’s 300th. Momentous occasion though it is, the footy gods often don’t care for nostalgia, with this young and fun iteration of Hawthorn my tip. 

The bye rounds leave just two games on Sunday, with North’s encounter with Collingwood the first. The Kangaroos broke through for an important win last weekend, but I can’t see them surmounting the challenge of the Pies – who brushed aside injury challenges to have a complete performance (according to Twitter, it’s just the third time in the Craig McRae era they won all four quarters of a game) over the hapless Demons on Monday. Add in a superb record against the Kangas, and this is all Collingwood.

The legitimate hardest game to pick is the Giants’ encounter with the Power, with the former needing to stay in touch with the top eight, and the latter beginning the round in the top four only on percentage. Both these teams should be making and winning finals, but neither are currently inspiring premiership choices.

Going on recent form, and given I’m perennially unsure about Port’s credentials, there’s only one way to go. 

Round 14TimDemCamLiamCrowdBL vs STKBLBLBLBL?WB vs FREFREFREFREFRE?RCH vs HAWRCHHAWRCHHAW?ADE vs SYDSYDSYDSYDSYD?NM vs COLCOLCOLCOLCOL?GWS vs PAGWSGWSGWSGWS?LAST WEEK44533ROLLING TOTAL6674696671