The last of the bye rounds is upon us at last!

That means we’ve only got one weekend to sit through before a full nine games are back on the AFL calendar for the rest of the home-and-away season; though sadly (depending on your position) the absence of Thursday night games will mostly mean those matches are crammed in one on top of the other on Saturday and Sunday.

After a mixed bag last round – with all six favourites winning, you were in for a rude shock if you picked a roughie or two – Round 15 looks to be another normal-seeming weekend for us tipsters to deal with… though if there’s anything certain about footy these days, it’s that it’s rarely that simple.

However, two games stick out as being particularly juicy: Port Adelaide hosting Brisbane in a crunch clash at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon, comfortably the hardest game of the round to tip; and then that evening, a match that looked ho-hum even two weeks ago but is suddenly well and truly up in the air – Melbourne and North Melbourne.

Can the badly flagging, Christian Petracca-less Demons arrest their slide and secure a badly needed four points as they attempt to make a charge back towards the eight? Or are they ripe for the picking for the suddenly resurgent, in-form (for them, at least) Kangaroos off the back of last week’s devastating heartbreak?

Tim Miller

Last week: 4

Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle

I only had to really consider two of my tips this week – as for the rest, it was very easy to just back in the favourites safe in the knowledge that most people will be also getting it wrong if the underdog prevails.

Let’s speed through that quartet first: Carlton are better and Geelong worse since their clash earlier this year, and the Blues should rubber-stamp their premiership credentials with a Friday night win here; likewise, Sydney’s red-hot run will likely have a Sam Taylor-less GWS backline dreading what’s coming on Saturday twilight; West Coast have been pushovers on the road this year and it’s hard to see that changing against an Essendon outfit with bigger fish to fry; and back on their own turf, Fremantle should rebound from last week’s disappointment against Gold Coast, who rival the Eagles for incompetence away from their home ground.

My underdog for the week has ended up being Brisbane knocking over Port Adelaide; I’m still a long way from convinced about the Lions being ‘back’ despite their run of wins, but I’m even less keen on picking the Power given their last four games at home have featured losses to the Blues and Adelaide and thoroughly unconvincing wins over St Kilda and Hawthorn. It’s the Lions for me, but far from confidently.

I very nearly made it a second underdog by picking North Melbourne, but I’m just not brave enough to back up my total confidence the Kangaroos can win on Saturday night by actually backing them to do it. Their strong midfield should be more than a match for the Demons’ sans Petracca, while Simon Goodwin’s team are probably the league’s least capable team of capitalising on North’s biggest weakness: key defence.

The Dees still should win, but let’s put it this way: if they play the way they have in recent humbling losses to Freo and the Pies, then the mire they’ve already sunk into will be a whole lot deeper by Sunday morning.

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 5

Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle

The final bye round is upon us and with the ladder as close as it is, we’ve been presented with up to four marquee matches – pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Geelong has lost five of its last six games, yet still sit sixth on the ladder thanks to their good start to 2024. If ever there was a game worth just that little bit more than the four points on offer, their clash with Carlton is it – fresh off a bye, welcoming back some important players, facing the second-best team in the league, Friday night is huge.

It’s just a pity for them that the Blues are so well covered all over the ground; they’re Sydney’s only rivals in terms of depth, both positionally and quality-wise, and they should win this game.

I’ll dub the early Saturday game for what it is, and what some already know is my stance on these two teams – it’s the fight for the Pretendership in June. Both Brisbane and Port Adelaide have such defensive issues and such misguided offensive styles inside 50, yet neither can or will change their approach. 

The Lions have a bit more upside with more quality players, but they aren’t going to be any sort of challenger this season unless they lower their eyes and try hit targets, rather than bomb it inside 50. The prediction here is a win for the Lions, and everyone to clamour over the result.

Pre-season, the Giants were flag favourites and the Swans were seen as a level below them. The reality was that one team recruited spectacularly in the off-season and the other overachieved last year. 

This should be a quality game and one that GWS goes into without a worry in the world. Without Sam Taylor, no one expects them to win; if they do, they’ll transform their season. I’m not bold enough to tip them – I haven’t had any reason to be convinced of the Giants in the last 18 months – but they’re a chance.

The final interesting game is that of the September challengers: Gold Coast have only played Fremantle twice in Perth, with both outings too long ago to be concerned with. 

The last time we saw the Dockers, the Bulldogs smashed them by restricting their run and quick ball movement. The Suns can do the same thing, but it’s just a bit harder to defend more space at Optus Stadium than Marvel. Losing here isn’t a death knell on either team’s finals chances, so I’ll go with the Dockers.

Cameron Rose

Last week: 4

Carlton, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle

A number of matches of interest this week, with a few eight-point games among them.

The Cats’ forward line destroyed the Blues’ backs when they met in Round 7, and it was enough for Geelong to win the game after Carlton took out all the key stats. Let’s see what Michael Voss and his players have learned in the ensuing two months – expect it to be a fair bit.

Port and Brisbane games usually go the way of the home side; it’s coming up to a month since the Power have won a game of football, and this should be their line in the sand match. The Lions are back in form and will give a stern test, and can really get on a roll if they win – their next two games are at the Gabba, and after that they take on West Coast. Port for mine, with that home ground advantage too significant to ignore.

We don’t always know which Fremantle we’re going to get, and it’s fair to say the Dockers got ahead of themselves during the bye after beating Melbourne by 15 goals heading in. A 67-point loss to the Dogs that felt like a hundred was the result.

The Suns are yet to win an away game this season, and have to take a stand at some point. Will it be this game? Probably not.

Liam Salter

Last week: 5

Carlton, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle

Thought exercise: cast your minds back to Saturday, April 27th – just 54 days ago.

That night, Geelong’s 13-point win over Carlton continued a then-unbeaten start to the season which kept them at the top of the ladder – even Sydney, who comfortably defeated the Hawks the following afternoon, were stranded a game behind Chris Scott’s men. 

Since then, the Swans, Blues and Hawks (who, granted, don’t feature this weekend) have a combined 16 victories compared to just one for Geelong. Tonight’s repeat’s encounter, in theory, would be an excellent opportunity for the Cats to bounce back with a big scalp, but the Blues’ form is irresistible. It’ll be close – of course it will – but I have way more faith in Carlton. 

Speaking of the Swans, there simply isn’t enough superlatives to describe Sydney or the hype around them. They face their younger Harbour City rivals in an enticing Battle of the Bridge, and at face value, it’s easy to see why the flag favourites are also expected to win here.

I’m not game enough to tip against them – probably never will again – but can’t shake the feeling this will be very close. 

Whilst the Power are, well, somewhere, the Lions are at the very least moving up the ladder. Last weekend’s win over St Kilda, their second in succession, sends them to Adelaide with some hope, but I’m yet to be fully convinced they are reversing their stagnation. At home, Port should be bouncing back here.

The Dockers desperately need to do the same – they were terrible last week, and will be grateful for a home game against the improving-yet-poor-on-the-road Suns. 

On Sunday, while the Bombers need to beat much better teams to lend credibility to their top four credentials, they’ll have to make do with a win over the Eagles at Marvel.

Needing to gain credibility, full stop, are the Demons. I’m incredibly tempted to back North Melbourne, and the Dees are a poor man’s Collingwood, but head wins out over heart here. 

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