Since Ivan Cleary was signed as Penrith’s coach for the second time, five seasons and six off seasons have passed. History will show in this time the Panthers have been to the big dance on the last four occasions, and have held the trophy aloft the last three times – a three-peat not seen since the Eels of the early 80s.

In this same period, the Panthers have also let go of a lot players to rival clubs, enough who are still playing in the NRL to fill a top 30 roster. Where would this roster finish if it were the 18th team?

Much has been made of the work that Phil Gould and his team did to restructure Penrith’s talent pathways to more effectively mine the biggest rugby league backyard in Sydney. The result? The club’s performance over the last four seasons is undisputedly the most dominant of the salary cap era.

Penrith’s recent production line has been a perfect storm for opposition clubs and a dream come true for Panthers like myself. Such a run of success not seen in the NRL era opens up a lot of questions. What does it say, if anything, about the effectiveness of the salary cap? How much of the success is due to the scale of Penrith’s junior base itself? How much has been due to the quality of the club’s development system and how much is just because a group of unusually good players all happened to come through the system in a short space of time?

And the question of all questions – will this be the year that it all catches up with Penrith or can they continue to resist the salary cap squeeze?

Many predicted after 2021 when Penrith lost Matt Burton and Kurt Capewell the Panthers would drop back to the field. The same predictions were made when Api Koroisau and Viliame Kikau departed after 2022, and now again with Stephen Crichton and Spencer Leniu. After not registering on the AAMI Park scoreboard last Friday night, some pundits have even forecast that Penrith won’t play finals this year.

At the other extreme, when Penrith won all four grades in 2022 there were those who argued the NRL needs an AFL-style draft to further equalise talent for fear of the Penrith juggernaut continuing indefinitely now they’d finally mastered the art of capitalising on their junior nursery.

As with most things in life, answers are not found at the extremes. Of course, Penrith will eventually come back to the pack – it’s been a perfect storm, but all storms come to an end. Crichton and Leniu could very well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Moreover, the juniors Penrith have brought through, beginning with Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and James Fisher-Harris, have been out-of-the-box good. And the best of those, the one whose last 20 mins of the 2023 season was arguably the best 20 minutes of any player ever, is essentially at the club because his father’s first stint as coach meant that he went to high school at St. Dominic’s, played weekend footy for Brothers, and was therefore ripe for the picking by the harvester Gould was setting up. That won’t happen again…although there is a younger brother who goes by the name Jett (as a Panther fan, one can only dream!).

On top of this, there’s nothing stopping other clubs from doing the same. While Penrith’s junior competition is the envy of all Sydney clubs, it has always been dwarfed by the Broncos’ monopoly access to the entire city of Brisbane. Granted, the Titans are just down the highway, the Storm like to get their fingers in the pie and now the Dolphins will take their slice too.

But this is no different to the Roosters perennially raiding the territory to the south and Manly raiding to the west. And Penrith is not the only Sydney club with a sizeable junior base either. Will Gus eventually be successful in replicating his Penrith model at Canterbury? Why aren’t the Wests Tigers doing the same with their junior base, second in scale only to Penrith’s when it comes to Sydney clubs?

Salary caps, by design, promote the competitiveness of competitions and an equalisation of talent over the long term. In an ideal world, the NRL would love as even a competition as possible where all supporters feel like their club’s next premiership is within reach or at least somewhere on the horizon.

To date, Penrith’s strategy of developing local talent and maintaining a culture that enables them to retain the players they most value has been successful in circumventing enough salary cap pressure to stay at the top of the pile.

The salary cap hasn’t gone to sleep at the wheel – it’s been pulling double shifts and this becomes glaringly apparent when you look at the players (and coaches) Penrith have let go over the last six off seasons.

If combined, these players could form an entire Top 30 roster made up of players with current Top 30 NRL contracts, not to mention a handful of players in the English Super League as well as another group who moved on to other clubs but have recently retired.

This Top 30 wouldn’t just be made up of fringe players either. In fact, it would be far from it, with a starting 17 packed with rep players. My question is – where would this Top 30 (and coaching staff) finish on the ladder if it were the 18th team this year?

For ease of comparison, I have indicated the following for each player:
– representative and individual honours.
– current club and round 1 selection status – started, interchange, 18th man, reserve or unselected.

As a point of interest, I have also included how each player was recruited to Penrith to begin with. ‘Local Junior’ refers to those who played in the Penrith District JRL. ‘Recruited Junior’ refers to those who were scouted from elsewhere (i.e. Country NSW, QLD or NZ) but for whom Penrith was their first point of entry into an NRL club (i.e. SG Ball etc). ‘Free Agent’ refers to players who Penrith signed from another NRL club.

COACHING STAFF

Head Coach: Andrew Webster / Warriors / Head Coach
– 2023 Dally M Coach of the Year
Assistant: Cameron Ciraldo / Bulldogs / Head Coach
Assistant: Trent Barrett / Eels / Assistant

BEST 17

1) Daine Laurie / Local Junior / Penrith / 18th Man
2) Dallin Watene-Zelezniak / Local Junior / Warriors / Started
– NZ: 13 Tests
– 2023 Dally M Winger of the Year
3) Siosifa Talakai / Free Agent / Sharks / Started
– NSW: 2 Origins
4) Stephen Crichton / Local Junior / Bulldogs / Started
– NSW: 6 Origins
– 2020 & 2023 Dally M Centre of the Year
– Bulldogs Captain 2023
5) Maika Sivo / Recruited Junior / Eels / Suspended
6) Matt Burton / Recruited Junior / Bulldogs / Started
– NSW: 2 Origins
– Kangaroos: 2 Tests
– 2021 Dally M Centre of the Year
– Bulldogs Captain 2022
7) Sean O’Sullivan / Local Junior / Dolphins / Started
8) Reagan Campbell-Gillard / Local Junior / Eels / Started
– NSW: 3 Origins
– Kangaroos: 9 Tests
– 2017 Dally M IC Player of the Year
9) Api Koroisau / Free Agent / Tigers /Started
– NSW: 4 Origins
– Tigers Captain 2022-23
10) Spencer Leniu / Local Junior / Roosters / Started
– NSW: Extended Squad 2023
11) Viliame Kikau / Free Agent / Bulldogs / Started
– 2020 & 2021 Dally M 2nd Rower of the Year
12) Kurt Capewell / Free Agent / Warriors / Started
– QLD: 9 Origins
13) J’maine Hopgood / Recruited Junior / Eels / Started
– QLD:- Extended Squad 2023
– 2022 NSW Cup Player of the Year
14) Wade Egan / Recruited Junior / Warriors / Started
15) Terrell May / Local Junior / Roosters / Interchange
16) Hame Sele / Free Agent / Dragons / Injured
17) Zac Hosking / Free Agent / Raiders / Started

RESERVES

18) Jack Cogger / Free Agent / Knights / Interchange
19) Isaiya Katoa / Local Junior / Dolphins / Reserve
20) Jaeman Salmon / Free Agent / Bulldogs / Started
21) Charlie Staines / Recruited Junior / Tigers / Bye
22) Jack Hetherington / Recruited Junior / Knights / Interchange
23) Brendan Hands / Local Junior / Eels / Interchange

TOP 30 DEPTH

24 ) Corey Harawira-Naera / Recruited Junior / Raiders / Injured
– NZ: 3 Tests
25) Jed Cartwright / Local Junior / Knights / 18th Man
26) Brent Naden / Recruited Junior / Tigers / Bye
27) Tom Jenkins / Recruited Junior / Knights / Reserve
28) Billy Burns / Recruited Junior / Sharks / Unselected
29) Zane Tetevano / Free Agent / Bulldogs / Unselected
– NZ: 3 Tests
30) Hohepa Puru / Local Junior / Raiders / Unselected

NSW CUP DEPTH

31) Robert Jennings / Local Junior/ Dolphins / Unselected
32) Dean Whare / Free Agent / Super League
– NZ: 20 Tests
33) Adam Keighran / Free Agent / Super League
34) Kaide Ellis / Recruited Junior / Super League
35) Tyrone May / Local Junior / Super League
36) Paul Momirovski / Free Agent / Super League
37) Caleb Aekins / Recruited Junior / Super League
38) James Tamou / Free Agent / Retired
– NSW: 14 Origins
– Kangaroos: 12 Tests
– Penrith/Tigers Captain
39) James Maloney / Free Agent / Retired
– NSW: 14 Origins
– Kangaroos: 3 Tests
40) Josh Mansour / Free Agent / Retired
– NSW: 3 Origins
– Kangaroos: 7 Tests
41) Trent Merrin / Free Agent / Retired
– NSW: 13 Origins
– Kangaroos: 7 Tests

When assessing the quality of a playing roster, you need to look at how much top end talent there is and how much depth there is to balance it out.

As for the top end, the best 17 would boast six players with origin experience (and another two in an extended squad last year), a Kiwi international and a Fijian who has twice won Dally M selection in his position.

If you look at current NRL rosters, only the Panthers and six other clubs can compare to this when it comes to representative honours as a measure of top end talent.

Panthers: 6 Origin / 3 NZ / 1 Kangaroo (Dylan Edwards)
Roosters: 5 Origin / 3 NZ / 2 GB
Broncos: 7 Origin / 1 NZ / 1 Dally M (Ezra Mam)
Souths: 8 Origin / 1 GB
Cowboys: 8 Origin / 1 NZ
Warriors: 1 Origin, 7 NZ, 1 Kangaroo (Dylan Walker)
Storm: 5 Origin / 2 NZ

The overall squad would boast 16 first round starters (if you count the suspended Sivo and Staines who has the bye but is predicted to start) with the potential for the injured Sele to start this year too. It would also boast an additional four who will come off the interchange in round 1. That’s a total of 21 players who are currently in the best 17 of an NRL club if not for injury or suspension. The law of averages says that’s above average and indicates this hypothetical side would have decent depth too.

Along with this, the roster would be guided by the reigning Dally M coach of the year, who took a largely unchanged roster (into which he had no input) that finished second last in 2022 and who were wooden spoon favourites, to a preliminary final. Add two assistants with head coaching experience, and I think the roster would give the top four a real shake.